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Volume XXVI, Number XLIX | November 9, 2026
Who Has the Upper Hand on Your Street Now?
If you plan to sell, buy or do both in the next year, your first big decision hangs on one question: who has the upper hand right now, the buyer or the seller? Guess wrong as a seller, and you'll set an asking price above market value, causing your listing to get stale and lose interest from the very buyers that would pay you the most money for it. Guess wrong as a buyer, and you'll pay more than you had to.
The For Sale signs on your street hold the first clue: how long they stay up. Over the past year, the median time to sell an existing home in Leon County was 64 days, the longest since 2014. Here's how far that wait has stretched since 2022.
In 2022, it was 24 days. For a seller, those 40 extra days mean more beds made before work, more showings booked on short notice and more payments on a house they're ready to leave. For a buyer, every one of those days is more time to shop, compare and negotiate.
So why are homes waiting so much longer? You might blame mortgage rates. The numbers point somewhere else, and I'll show you right after this word from today's sponsor.
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Today's 30-year mortgage rate is 7.17%, a little below its 50-year average of 7.60%, so rates aren't the problem. The real change is the number of homes for sale. On November 8, Leon County had 1,285 homes listed, up from 914 on the same date in 2022. That's 40% more homes for buyers to choose from, and 40% more competing with yours if you're selling.
At the past year's pace of sales, those homes would last 5.1 months, the most for early November since 2016. If no new homes came on the market, the last one wouldn't sell until mid-April.
That's why the signs stay up longer: buyers have more homes to choose from than in any early November since 2016. If you're buying, that gives you room to compare and negotiate. If you're selling, a home priced for last year's market is the easiest one for a buyer to skip.
Not everyone on your street is selling, though. If you bought when rates were low and you're staying put, you have an advantage of your own: a payment today's buyers can't get.
Back in 2021, I wrote that it was "the best time to buy a home that you'll likely encounter ever again," and that you "really should look into buying your future home today" because "People will be mortgage-locked in their homes."
I said the same thing on my YouTube channel, and some viewers pushed back hard, saying I was just a Realtor trying to tell everybody it's time to buy. Here's how that advice aged. Owners who bought a median-priced home in 2021 with 20% down pay about $758 a month on the loan. A buyer of that same home today, with 20% down at today's rate, would pay about $1,705 a month. That's 125% more.
A payment that low buys you time to plan your next move on your terms, not the market's.
So how far has the market tipped toward buyers, and what does that mean for your asking price or your offer? This morning's article places today's market on the same scale I use with every seller. See where Leon County lands on that scale.
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Data updated Nov 8, 2026. Sources: Leon County Property Appraiser and the Tallahassee MLS.
Until later,
Joe Manausa MBA
Joe Manausa Team at Xcellence Realty
P.S. I forgot to mention the number I'm watching most closely. Home values are up 1.6% over the past 12 months, but nearly all of that came this summer, and October's values slipped below last October's. The article shows why that has me concerned. See If Your Home Is Still Gaining Value